In a draft in which the first pick is dominated by the point guard and center position, former Georgetown small forward Otto Porter will attempt to join an exclusive class of wing players to be selected number one overall in the NBA Draft.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY/PHOTO CREDITS

The Polarization of the First Pick

            According to league sources, only three players remain in contention for Cleveland's selection at number one overall in Thursday's NBA Draft. The group is headlined by two big men, former Kentucky star Nerlens Noel and Maryland standout Alex Len. While the two prospects differ in skill sets, as Noel excels at protecting the rim and Len boasts a polished post repertoire, both players offer Cleveland an opportunity to draft a franchise center. Draft experts widely regard Cleveland to be deciding between Noel and Len at this point in the pre-draft process.
            On the outside looking in is the 2013 Big East Player of the Year, Otto Porter. Porter offers the most NBA-ready package out of any prospect in this year's class. With a mature offensive skill set, he will contribute scoring from the beginning. So if the former Georgetown wing is the most NBA-ready prospect in this draft class, why is he not a lock for the Cavaliers? He surely fits an immediate need. Alonzo Gee, the 2010 NBA D-League Rookie of Year, has received a majority of the minutes at the small forward position for the past three years in Cleveland. While Gee has not been terrible, his role in the starting position is definitely holding the organization back from a coveted postseason berth. I have nothing against Gee (In fact, I actually very much enjoy watching the young man play), he's just not starting material at this point in his career. If that's not enough, the Cavs have Luke Walton under contract (There's the deal breaker). And plus, how attractive is a combination of Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Porter?

But the fact of the matter is that Porter’s chances of being drafted first are slim at this point. If he’s such a legitimate prospect, then why are the Cavaliers not jumping the gun on drafting him? It’s his position. At small forward, Porter’s chances of being drafted first are lesser than other players like Len and Noel. It’s not his fault. It’s the mindset of modern NBA executives. It’s the effectiveness of owning superstars at other positions. And most importantly, it’s the history of the league.

Anthony Davis. Kyrie Irving. John Wall. Blake Griffin. Derrick Rose. Greg Oden. Andrea Bargnani. Andrew Bogut. Dwight Howard. Lebron James. Each of these players represents the first overall picks in the NBA Draft from the past ten years. All had terrific amateur careers. All appeared to have tremendous upside. However, in examining the situation more closely, there is a reoccurring theme. Eight of the ten prospects play either the point guard or center position. At first, I thought this would be a more recent phenomenon. But boy was I wrong. Throughout NBA history the number one overall draft choice has been dominated by point guards and centers. Let’s use Otto Porter for an example and examine the small forward position.

According to NBA.com, only seven true small forwards have been chosen number one overall since the Draft’s creation in 1947. Seven? A position that has produced the likes of Larry Bird, John Havlicek, Scottie Pippen, and Dominique Wilkins, to name a few, has only manufactured seven first overall selections over the past 65 years? Yup. The list includes the following: Elgin Baylor (1954), David Thompson (1975), Mark Aguirre (1981), James Worthy (1982), Larry Johnson (1991), Glenn Robinson (1994), and Lebron James (2003). At first glance, this list is loaded with basketball talent. A combined eight NBA Championships, thirty-eight NBA All-Star appearances, and three Hall of Fame inductions. So why if this group of small forwards has produced such great NBA careers, have teams rarely taken chances with talented small forwards, and wing players in general, with the number one pick? Before answering that question, let’s look into some draft decisions regarding the small forward position.

In conveying owner’s attempts to draft either a franchise point guard or center rather than accept the talent of a proven small forward, I think of two recent draft day occurrences. First, let’s go back to 2003. President George W. Bush is planning an invasion of Iraq, Finding Nemo just hit the box office, and teenage basketball superstar Lebron James is taking the world by storm. There’s no question that the Cleveland Cavaliers will select James with the first pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. The Detroit Pistons occupy the second spot. In a draft that has produced the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh, the Pistons certainly would find their franchise player. Think again. After watching Darko Milicic work out with team personnel for eight hours (How about watching Carmelo Anthony dominate an entire college basketball season?), Detroit executives settle on the Serbian big man. With the number three pick, the Denver Nuggets select former Syracuse star and future NBA scoring champion Carmelo Anthony. Flash forward four years, to 2007. The Portland Trail Blazers sit atop the NBA Draft lottery, and the division rival Seattle Supersonics hold the second pick. Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are by far the most coveted players in their draft class. If Durant goes first, then Oden goes second; and vice-versa. The Trail Blazers went on to select Oden, citing the big man’s ability to establish an interior presence. The former Ohio State standout battled injuries his entire career and was eventually out of the league within five years. Seattle “settled” for Durant, the future NBA superstar.

            So why is it that NBA teams covet players at the point guard and center postion, often reaching for players such as Andrew Bogut and Andrea Bargnani, with the first overall pick? Because it’s been proven time and time again that great players at these positions build a franchise. It was Magic Johnson in 1979. Allen Iverson in 1996. The likes of Derrick Rose, John Wall, and Kyrie Irving in the 2000s. For the big men it was Hakeem Olajuwan, Patrick Ewing, and David Robinson in the 80s. Shaquille O’Neal in 1992. And most recently, Dwight Howard in 2004. All franchise players. NBA talents that are often only offered once in a draft. A young, promising point guard to run the show for the next decade. A huge, intimidating center to control the paint for years to come. These are players that NBA executives can build around. No knock on any of the other positions, it’s just that having a dominate player at the center sets the team up for success. Rather than take a proven college player such as Carmelo Anthony, teams will bite on the potential of drafting a superstar point guard or center. It’s why three of the first five picks in the 2004 draft were point guards.

Now more than ever, team’s yearn for a young superstar to be able to compete with the likes of the “bought dynasties.” With free agency becoming an increasingly exclusive bidding war among big market teams, smaller market teams have to focus on promising talent in the draft. One selection determines whether or not a team can contend for a playoff spot or continue as an NBA bottom-feeder for the next decade. In Thursday’s NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers will look to add another prospect to their already promising young core. If Otto Porter is selected, he will join an exclusive class of small forwards to be taken with the first pick. The most recent one? Lebron James to the Cavaliers ten years ago. If Porter is not selected by Cleveland, it will surely be either Nerlens Noel or Alex Len. Let’s just hope they’re not the next Michael Olowokandi and Andrew Bogut. You’re on the clock Cleveland.