Wednesday, June 26, 2013

After selecting former Duke big man Miles Plumlee with the 26th pick in last year's draft, the Indiana Pacers will look to add a pair of scoring role players with the 23rd and 53rd picks in Thursday's NBA Draft.
Indiana Pacers 2013 NBA Draft Preview

The Indiana Pacers hold the 23rd and 53rd overall picks in Thursday’s NBA Draft. With second unit players D.J. Augustin and Tyler Hansbrough unlikely to come back, the two primary areas of concern are at the point guard and power forward position. Another major area of concern is the Pacers' second unit scoring abilities, which has failed miserably at times over the past season. In such a weak draft class, there is not a substantial drop off in talent between players selected in the later parts of the first round and those picked in the second round. With two picks, each in the later part of the round, Indiana has a wide range of possibilities. Indiana worked out 36 total prospects over seven workout sessions leading up to the draft. In looking at the Pacers’ draft options, I took each pick and broke it down into the three areas of concern: point guard, power forward, and wing scorer/shooter. Each player profile provides the basic measurements and per game statistics, realistic pre-draft projection, and my thoughts on how this player would work in the Pacers’ rotation.

            Nate Wolters South Dakota State – Guard
                     Height   6’4”        Weight 190 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   22.3/5.6/5.8
                     Projection: Late First Round/Early Second Round
                The 2013 Summit League Player of the Year has proven he can score the ball, but at a lesser level than most of the players listed below. The level of play Wolters’ consistently faced over his four years at South Dakota State make it hard to truly evaluate his NBA potential. Although he has great size for an NBA point guard, he lacks in other physical tools, such as wingspan (6’3”), strength, and explosiveness. On the defensive end he shows a tremendous understanding of defensive principles, but his subpar athleticism hinders his abilities. I’m not sure how this would translate to Frank Vogel’s system, as it would be much more difficult to improve a player’s athleticism rather than teach him defensive techniques. As for the offensive end, Wolters would be a great fit in Pacer blue and gold. He has a tremendous scoring ability and possesses great NBA range. Overall, Wolters is an intriguing prospect for the Pacers. If his scoring can translate to the next level, he will be a great fit in Indiana’s second unit. 

            Erick Green Virginia Tech – Guard
                    Height   6’3”        Weight 180 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   25.0/4.0/3.8
                    Projection: Late First Round/Early Second Round
Coming off a terrific senior season at Virginia Tech, in which he was named the 2013 ACC Player of the Year, Erick Green’s stock is on the rise across NBA draft big boards. Green is a natural scorer who is not afraid to points on the board. A majority of his shots are off the dribble, due to his superior ball-handling abilities. Although he has proven to be a solid spot-up shooter, he struggles in attacking the rim. His lack of superior size and strength may deter from his defensive abilities at the next level. Although Green did not work out for the Pacers, I think he would fit in nice with Indiana’s second unit. Donnie Walsh is keen on adding another scorer this offseason, and Green may very well be that guy.

                Peyton Siva Louisville – Guard
                     Height   6’1”        Weight 180 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   10.0/2.4/5.7
                     Projection: Late Second Round
                After an incredible senior season in which he led his Louisville Cardinals to the 2013 NCCA Championship, Peyton Siva will look to transfer his accomplishments to the NBA hardwood. Much of Siva’s game revolves around his excellent athleticism. On top of a 41.5” vertical leap, Siva has NBA level quickness. He utilizes these attributes on the defensive end, constantly pressuring opposing guards. His lack of size may be a problem when encountering bigger guards in the NBA. On offense, Siva is a proven distributer of the basketball. But his sometimes lackluster shooting abilities and shot selection detract from his overall offensive abilities. Despite this, his defensive abilities would make him a great fit in Vogel’s system. If the Pacers were to add a scoring guard in the first round, Siva would be a great fit to run the show for the second unit.

            Matthew Dellavedova St. Mary’s  – Guard
                     Height   6’4”        Weight 190 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   15.8/3.4/6.4
                     Projection: Late Second Round
At 6’4”, Dellavedova has great size for an NBA point guard. However, he lacks in length and overall athleticism. He makes up for his lack of athleticism with a tremendous basketball IQ and versatile skillset. He is a gifted and unselfish passer. However, he is more than a distributor, as he is the all-time leading scorer (and assister) in St. Mary’s history. A quick release allows him to get many shots off around the perimeter and in the mid-range area. However, he struggles to finish at the rim through contact and over bigger defenders. While Dellavedova has his flaws, I think he would be a great pick up in the second round. The second unit would benefit from a player who can both pass and score efficiently.

            Tony Mitchell North Texas – Forward
                   Height   6’9”    Weight 240 lbs     Class   Sophomore   Pts/Rebs/Blks  13.0/8.5/2.7
                   Projection: Middle to Late First Round
                After a great freshman season at North Texas, Mitchell’s production took a step back in his sophomore year. His selling point for NBA teams continues to be his elite physical tools. With a 7’3” wingspan and incredible athleticism, Mitchell is a force in the paint. Much of his regression occurred on the defensive end, where he moves poorly without the ball. A large percentage of his shots are jump shots outside of the lane. He rarely puts effort into posting up defenders on the block, where he has an athletic advantage. His dribble-drive abilities are very raw as well.  He is a good, but not great, rebounder. And his physical tools help him on the defensive end to alter opponents’ shots. Due to his limited abilities on the defensive end, the Pacers would have to add a scorer in order to draft Mitchell. For defensive purposes, he would be an excellent fit in Indiana.

            Kelly Olynyk Gonzaga – Forward
                    Height   7’0”        Weight 230 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Blks  18.1/4.8/1.1
                     Projection: First Round
Kelly Olynyk had a break out year for the Gonzaga Bulldogs this past season. After redshirting due to Robert Sacre’s presence in the rotation, Olynyk showed significant improvement in his basketball abilities. He has proven to be an elite scorer in the post and all the way out to three-point range. Olynyk would do most of his damage for the Pacers acting as a stretch four, allowing for increased dribble-drive penetration from the guard position. There is only a small chance that Olynyk will drop all the way to the 23rd pick. But if he does, Indiana will have to consider drafting the big man.

            Deshaun Thomas Ohio State – Forward
                   Height   6’7”        Weight 220 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   19.8/5.9/1.3
                    Projection: Second Round
As the leading scorer in undoubtedly the toughest conference in college basketball last season (Big Ten), Deshaun Thomas has proven his scoring abilities. He has tremendous range and has proven to do most of his offensive damage with his jump shot. He is the most effective in catch and shoot scenarios, but has shown improvement in dribble-drive and one-on-one situations. However, he faces his struggles on the defensive end at the next level. With an undersized body, Thomas will face difficulty guarding larger players at the forward position. In addition, he has showed minimal effort on the defense in the past. Although Thomas is a great offensive threat, and it would be nice to see a local product join the Pacers, he would be a poor fit defensively. Unless the coaching staff wants to take on the task of teaching Thomas on the defensive end, he is an unlikely draft choice for Indiana.  

            Kenny Kadji Miami (FL.) – Forward
                   Height   6’10”     Weight 240 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Blks  12.9/6.8/1.3
                   Projection: Late Second Round/Undrafted
As one of the most versatile players in college basketball last season, Kenny Kadji knows how to score the basketball. Standing at 6’10” Kadji is an intimidating force in the post. But with a smooth jump shot and soft touch, he is a terrific mid-range and three point shooter. Kadji’s ability to stretch the floor and hit outside shots off the pick-and-roll would work miracles within the Pacers second unit offense. On defense, Kadji’s lack of great athleticism limits his mobility against quicker forwards. But with his length and elite strength, Kadji is apt at blocking shots and holding his own down low. Although all signs point to a promising NBA career, his age will be a factor in his draft process. At 25 years old, Kadji is three to seven years older than most of his peers in the draft. Still, I think Kenny Kadji would fit in well with the Pacers, as he will stretch the floor on offense and help protect the rim on the defensive end.

            Christian Watford Indiana – Forward
                  Height   6’9”        Weight 230 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   22.3/6.3/0.9
                  Projection: Late Second Round/Undrafted
At this point in his career, Christian Watford has well-developed strengths and weaknesses. He has adequate size and basketball knowledge for an NBA power forward. Watford’s biggest strength is his spot-up shooting ability from the perimeter, which has improved dramatically over the past four years. Outside of his shooting, he struggles to add much of anything else on the offensive end. This has been evident throughout his career at Indiana, where he would all but disappear on the offensive end at times. On defense, he will be a liability against larger defenders. In the past, his defensive capabilities have been inconsistent. To be drafted by Indiana, the Pacers will have to see clear-cut dividends from his shooting ability to make up for lackluster defense.

            Erik Murphy Florida – Forward
                  Height   6’9”        Weight 240 lbs       Class   Senior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   12.2/5.5/1.4
                   Projection: Late Second Round/Undrafted
Erik Murphy improved dramatically between his junior and senior seasons at the University of Florida. In the offseason he focused on building upper and lower body strength and it certainly paid off for Murphy during the season. His added size and strength allowed for increased post efficiency. He has matured into a deadly three point threat. Murphy’s skills will allow him to play the role of a stretch floor at the next level, spacing the floor and allowing for dribble-drive penetration. On defense, his added strength has allowed him to mature into a very solid post defender. However, he still posts poor defensive rebounding numbers, just 3.3 per game, for a man his size. With his skillset, I can see him maturing into the type of player like Matt Bonner, another Florida alum. Although he did not work out with the Pacers, I think he would be a great fit in the second unit.

            Tony Snell New Mexico – Guard/Forward
                   Height   6’7”        Weight 200 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   12.5/2.6/2.9
                    Projection: Late First Round/Early Second Round
With a 6’7” frame and 7’0” wingspan, Snell will only need to add strength to be an athletically-gifted wing in the NBA. His offensive game hinges on his tremendous three-point shooting ability. However, Snell very well has the ability to put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. However, he will have to increase his ball-handling abilities if he wants to consistently penetrate the lane at the NBA level. He would be a great catch-and-shoot player in the Pacers’ second unit. He has all the physical tools to be an apt defender in the Association. If he makes the commitment to focus on defense, it will be cement his place on an NBA roster. Indiana has worked out Snell and he will surely be a target on Thursday night.  

            Reggie Bullock North Carolina – Guard/Forward
                  Height   6’7”        Weight 205 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   13.9/6.5/2.9
                  Projection: Middle to Late First Round
Bullock’s main attraction to any NBA team is his ability to stretch the floor and knock down open jumpers. On offense, he has also shown improved abilities in transition and a knack for pulling down offensive rebounds. Bullock always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Standing at 6’7” with a 6’10” Bullock has great size for an NBA small forward, which makes up for his subpar athleticism. On the defensive end he is a more than capable defender due to his size and competitiveness. Although his ceiling may not be the highest out of prospects around him, he will be a solid role player in the NBA. The Pacers could use a player like Bullock to defend and hit open shots for the second unit.

            Tim Hardaway Jr. Michigan – Guard
                    Height   6’6”        Weight 200 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   13.9/3.8/1.7
                     Projection: Middle to Late First Round
Tim Hardaway Jr. struggled at times over the past season to score the ball, as he faced a miserable shooting slump for much of the regular season. Even so, there’s no discounting his overall talent. He can stretch the floor, get out on the fast break, and put the ball on the floor consistently. Hardaway Jr. will be a good spot-up shooter at the next level, and that will be his selling point to many NBA teams. Defensively, he has all the tools to be an effective NBA defender. While his lack of great size will prevent him from creating many turnovers, his overall athleticism will make him a capable defender. He has been mocked to the Pacers in many mock drafts across the internet, and it could turn into a reality on Thursday. Hardaway Jr. would be a great fit on the Pacers’ bench.

            Jamaal Franklin San Diego State – Guard
                      Height   6’5”        Weight 190 lbs       Class   Senior    Pts/Rebs/Asts   17.0/9.5/3.3 
Projection: Middle to Late First Round
               
Pretty much a do-it-all player in college at San Diego State, Jamaal Franklin projects to be a shooting guard in the NBA. He is extrememly versatile, leading the team in scoring, assists, rebounds, and steals per game. His biggest attribute is his high motor, which is evident on both ends of the court. On offense, Franklin is always in attack mode, using his quick first step to get to the rim. However, he lacks an elite jump shot, unlike most of the other guards listed. He is a great rebounder for a guard, evident by his 9.5 rebounds per game last year. He also possesses great potential on the defensive end, as his toughness and athleticism will allow for him to guard multiple positions. Overall, Franklin is a great prospect. Plus, the dude wears long sleeves under his jersey. He would be a great fit in Pacer blue and gold, but I doubt he falls all the way to number 23. 
                               

            Glen Rice Jr. Georgia Tech/Rio Grande Valley Vipers – Guard
                   Height   6’4”        Weight 190 lbs       Class   NBDL      Pts/Rebs/Asts   13.0/6.2/1.9
                   Projection: Late First Round/Early Second Round
After an incredible second half of the NBA D-League season, Glen Rice Jr. will be drafted by some team into the NBA. He is a tremendous three point shooter and has proven over the last year that he can store efficiently at a high level. However, he has room to improve on his ball handling and dribble-drive abilities. He has matured into a solid defender after facing NBA-like level talent for the past year. His playing style would mesh perfectly into the Pacers’ second unit, but there are some questions surrounding his off-the-court issues. After being kicked off the Georgia Tech team, his maturity level may be an issue.

            Allen Crabbe Colorado – Guard
                    Height   6’4”        Weight 190 lbs       Class   Junior     Pts/Rebs/Asts   18.4/6.1/2.6
                     Projection: Middle to Late First Round
          While Crabbe did not work out with the Pacers, he would be a great role player to come off the bench and score for the second unit. His primary asset is his shooting stroke, which may be the purest in this year’s class behind Ben McLemore. His jump shot alone will help him find a spot within an NBA rotation. However, he lacks in his abilities in putting the ball on the floor and attacking the rim. He has the physical tools to defend in the NBA, although some added strength would be nice. Overall, Crabbe would be a great player in the Pacers’ rotation. He is one of my personal favorite prospects in this year’s class, and possibly one of the draft’s biggest sleeper picks.
 
Prediction: The Pacers will bite on the sure talent of one of the many scoring wings that will be available with the 23rd pick. There is just simply too much talent and guaranteed scoring available. Although players like Allen Crabbe and Jamaal Franklin may be gone by then, Indiana will still have a range of possibilities with the 23rd pick. The front office will decide between Tony Snell, Reggie Bullock, and Tim Hardaway Jr. At this point, there is no telling which player is favored by the Pacers. After selecting a scoring guard in the first round, the team will look to select a backup point guard or power forward with the 53rd pick. As of now, the players they are most likely deciding between are Matthew Dellavedova, Peyton Siva, and Kenny Kadji. The Pacers go small and select between Dellavedova and Siva to fill the void at backup point guard. Ultimately, nothing is set in stone, as the Pacers are rumored to be considering a number of trades that could change the team’s needs come Thursday.

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