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Do Chris Paul and the Clippers have what it takes to overcome a talented Western Conference and ultimately beat the Heat? Andrew Bernstein Getty Images/PHOTO CREDITS
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San Antonio Spurs
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| Mark Terrill AP/ PHOTO CREDITS |
Postseason Finish: NBA Finals
Projected Starting Lineup (As of July 1st): Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter
Why not start off with the team who finished runner-up in the 2013 NBA Finals? After a miraculous effort in which they pushed the Heat to seven games, the Spurs will make another run at a title in the 2013-14 season. With questions circulating regarding the team's age for the majority of the season, San Antonio proved the doubters wrong by coming within one win of another NBA championship. However, their are a few questions surrounding the Spurs roster for next season heading into July and the free agency period.
Manu Ginobili, the sixth man in San Antonio, is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. However, Ginobili is coming off perhaps his worst season in the NBA. He played horrible during the playoffs and, except for Game 5, was almost non-existent in June. He just did not look like the Manu NBA fans were used to seeing. Nonetheless, Ginobili will surely get offers from teams around the league, and especially those in serious contention for the title. He is still a solid NBA scorer and one of the most crafty players in the league. If Manu decides to leave San Antonio, the Spurs could be without one of their big three for next season.
Next year may be San Antonio's last run at a title in the Duncan Era. Although he has played great, his age began to show in the later stages of the Finals. There is no question he and Kobe Bryant are the best players of their generation, but one more championship may heighten his legacy enough to oust Kobe. If San Antonio wants to win one more for Duncan, they will have to add a few pieces. While Tiago Splitter showed great improvement, the Miami Heat demoralized him in the paint. They will need to add another good big man to give the team some much needed toughness in the paint. Also, the Spurs may need to look for a backup point guard as well. With Parker out in the Finals, Ginobili was given much of the ball handling duties, which did not work in their favor.
Unless the top of the Western Conference makes significant upgrades through free agency, the Spurs should contend for the top playoff spot once again. At the very least they should wrap up a top four seed come playoff time. This team will find success in the postseason, but I think they hit the wall at the Western Conference Finals. Oklahoma City will be back and better than ever, and with Houston's possibilities (Dwight Howard), and even the Clippers growth, San Antonio may not find the success they had this year. But then again, I would not be surprised if the Spurs were in the Finals 11 months from now.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Postseason Finish: Second Round
Projected Starting Lineup (As of July 1st): Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins
Oklahoma City got the toughest break out of any team in the postseason last year when star point guard Russell Westbrook went down with a knee injury in the first round against the Rockets. Although Kevin Durant and company were still talented enough to advance out of the first round, Westbrook's absence was enough to send the number one seed home early. The defensive-minded Grizzlies wreaked havoc on Oklahoma City, pushing Kevin Durant to throw up shot after shot.
Sixth man Kevin Martin will is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and rumors are circulating that the former Rockets star may be on the outs in OKC. Playing behind Thabo Sefolosha is not the most ideal spot in the rotation for a player who has averaged roughly twenty points for a large portion of his career. Martin has been linked to the a number of teams, including the Minnesota Timberwolves. If Minnesota steals Martin from Oklahoma City, the Thunder will lack a serious scoring touch off the bench.
Ultimately, I think Martin will stay with Oklahoma City and except a scoring role off the bench. The team is too talented and offers too great of a chance of winning an NBA Championship, something the Timberwolves cannot offer. With Martin back, Oklahoma City will resemble the team that only lost 22 games in the regular season last year.
With Westbrook back in the fold, Oklahoma City will be a top two seed in the West next season. The team's regular season success will hinge on Martin's return and whether or not the organization can fill his hole if he decides to leave. Regardless, Durant and Westbrook should lead the team deep into the playoffs, baring any significant injuries. The team should make a run at returning to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons.
Memphis Grizzlies
Postseason Finish: Western Conference Finals
Projected Starting Lineup (As of July 1st): Mike Conley, Jerryd Bayless, Tayshaun Prince, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol
Like the Indiana Pacers, the Memphis Grizzlies were a surprise team this postseason. Like the Pacers, the Grizzlies made it all the way to the Conference Finals. Like the Pacers, the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league (1. Grizzlies 2. Pacers). Like the Pacers, the Grizzlies are a couple pieces away from legitimately competing for an NBA championship.
After plowing through the Clippers in the first round and disposing the Westbrook-less Thunder in the second round, Memphis faced San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals. And they hit a wall. San Antonio easily handled the big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, sweeping the Grizz en route to the NBA Finals.
As the best defensive team in basketball last season, Memphis will look once again be a force on the defensive end in the 2013-14 season. Additionally, with two elite big man in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, Memphis is a troubling team to handle. Their roster matches up well with the Miami Heat. Both Randolph and Gasol are better than any big man on the Heat's roster, and we have seen what can happen when Miami loses the paint (Example: Roy Hibbert). Their swarming, high-motor defensive style pushing opposing teams to take care of the ball, and they never allow easy baskets. Although they may not be the most talented roster, their style of play is perfect for postseason basketball.
The Grizzlies defensive abilities will once again allow the team to grab a high seed in the playoffs. I think the team will add a few pieces in the offseason, which will allow them to jump the Clippers in the standings. However, I think their sometimes lackluster offensive abilities will spell trouble come playoff time. While there is a chance they can return to the Western Conference Finals, do not bet on the Grizz going any further.
Houston Rockets
Postseason Finish: First Round
Projected Starting Lineup (As of July 1st): Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Donata Motiejunas, Omer Asik
The Houston Rockets make the list because they are looking like the front runners to acquire the services of former Laker big man Dwight Howard. Houston was the first team to meet with Howard when free agency opened Monday morning. The Rockets have a history of talented big men (Hakeem Olajuwan, Yao Ming), and stressed that idea as a main selling point with Howard. In fact, Yao Ming was in attendance for the meeting via Skype. If Howard bites on this selling point, among others, the Rockets will be a very scary team next season.
With James Harden, Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons, and Omer Asik, Houston has a talented young core to build around for the future. And with young point guard Patrick Beverley's break out postseason, the future holds great things for the Rockets. They are one player away from becoming one of the top teams in the West. The organization thinks that player is Dwight Howard. After missing out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes last year, the Rockets are pursuing him at full force this offseason. And according to many league sources, it's working.
At this point, I expect Howard to sign with Houston. If this happens, it is believed that the team will have to deal Jeremy Lin in order to free up enough cap space. The organization has set its goal on freeing up enough cap for a max deal, evident in sending Thomas Robinson to Portland for two second round picks and two international players. Although the organization was high on Lin last offseason, the Rockets will stop at just about nothing to acquire Howard. Houston looks like the front runner at this point in the process and probably have a fifty percent chance of landing the big man.
With Howard on the roster, Houston will most likely capture a top four seed in the Western Conference. A trio of James Harden, Dwight Howard, and Chandler Parsons is a young scoring machine. If Harden and Howard can hit their stride together, this team will be a threat to reach the NBA Finals. With a superstar center on the roster, Houston could spell trouble for Miami, whose big man are more than lackluster.
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